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AHSFHS Article Series

   The best of the best in Alabama High   
  School Football over the past 100 seasons.

2022 Weekly Predictions

            Each week we will let you know how the Computer did and how many favorites won according to the AHSFHS Power Ratings.  The Power Ratings are based upon past performance early in the season and will better reflect a team's strength as the football season progresses.

            Last week the Power Ratings had a record of 100-14 (87.7%) predicting the outcome of the first round games. Two games were predicted to be even so we went 90-12 (88.2%) in the AHSAA games and 10-2 in the AISA. Nine of the games the computer missed were contests where the loser was favored by less than seven points.

           Last week the Power Ratings had fourteen first round games where the predicted winner was a lower seed. The computer went 11-3 in those games. Not bad.

           The biggest upset was Parker defeating Clay-Chalkville after entering the game as a 25 point underdog. Others included Geraldine (+23) beating Winfield 24-8, Colbert County (+11) beating J.B. Pennington 57-28 and W.S. Neal (+11) defeating Opp 27-13.

           Sometimes an eye test is better than anything a computer will tell us. Hueytown has been on a tear recently but I am not sure they are 5 points better than Theodore. Is Arab six points better than Moody? Will Demopolis beat Faith Academy by four points? Other games I think may go differently that the Power Ratings predict are Maplesville over Leroy by 2 and Sweet Water over Elba by 4. I guess we will need to let the teams play and see how it goes.

           A few close games are predicted this week. Decatur is a one point favorite over Gardendale. Gulf Shores is also a one point favorite over Central Clay County. Cherokee County over West Morgan by one. Etowah and Deshler is considered a push.

           Remember that teams are rewarded for performing better than expected. So a team with a low rating losing to a team from a higher one will not be punished as much as a team losing to a team they are suppose to beat. Basically that means a team will move up by beating a team they are favored to beat by more than the predicted point spread. Another team will move up even if they lose, if they lose by less than the predicted spread.

Weekly Predictions (Select Week to View)

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Second Round Playoff Predictions
(Team listed first is favorite) 
Percentage is the chances for the first team listed to win the game
7A Pct to Win
Auburn vs. Dothan High  -15 82.9%
Central Phenix City vs. Enterprise  -22 91.8%
Hoover vs. Hewitt-Trussville  -7 66.5%
Thompson vs. Vestavia Hills  -8 68.9%
Decatur vs. Gardendale  -1 50.2%
Hartselle vs. Center Point  -16 83.8%
Mountain Brook at Gadsden City  -16 82.9%
Muscle Shoals at Parker  -7 65.1%
Homewood vs. Pike Road  -8 68.0%
Saraland at Hillcrest Tuscaloosa  -3 55.5%
St. Pauls vs. Pelham  -7 64.8%
Hueytown at Theodore  -5 60.4%
Demopolis at Faith Academy  -4 59.6%
Gulf Shores at Central Clay County  -1 51.2%
Arab vs. Moody  -6 63.0%
Ramsay at Guntersville  -8 68.0%
Pleasant Grove at Russellville  -2 53.5%
Leeds vs. Scottsboro  -8 68.9%
Tallassee vs. Charles Henderson  -3 57.2%
UMS-Wright vs. Beauregard  -12 76.2%
Andalusia at American Christian  -17 85.5%
Anniston at B.T. Washington  -16 83.2%
Etowah at Deshler  -0 47.8%
Catholic Montgomery at Jacksonville  -18 85.9%
Priceville at Oneonta  -2 54.2%
Randolph at Dora  -15 82.1%
Handley at T.R. Miller  -3 56.9%
Cherokee County vs. West Morgan  -1 51.2%
Gordo vs. Lauderdale County  -24 93.2%
Mars Hill at Geraldine  -25 93.8%
Piedmont at Colbert County  -11 74.0%
Alabama Christian vs. Pike County  -2 54.2%
Madison Academy vs. Sylvania  -12 76.0%
Dadeville vs. Thomasville  -11 74.2%
Mobile Christian vs. Trinity  -6 63.9%
St. James at W.S. Neal  -16 83.5%
Aliceville vs. Falkville  -15 81.9%
Ariton vs. Highland Home  -6 63.2%
Reeltown vs. G.W. Long  -20 88.7%
Pisgah at Southeastern  -2 54.5%
Lexington vs. Tuscaloosa Academy  -14 79.4%
Vincent at Clarke County  -8 67.4%
B.B. Comer at Wicksburg  -3 55.7%
Fyffe at Winston County  -25 94.0%
Linden vs. Brantley  -5 61.6%
Addison at Lynn  -6 63.4%
Maplesville vs. Leroy  -2 53.5%
Millry vs. Loachapoka  -21 89.7%
Meek vs. Pickens County  -6 62.7%
Spring Garden vs. Coosa Christian  -7 65.5%
Sweet Water at Elba  -4 58.2%
Valley Head at Marion County  -2 54.0%
Glenwood School vs. Morgan Academy  -26 94.3%
Lee-Scott Academy vs. Valiant Cross -40 99.4%
Chambers Academy vs. Clarke Prep  -20 88.6%
Patrician Academy vs. Edgewood Academy  -30 96.8%
Jackson Academy vs. Crenshaw Christian  -15 81.4%
Lowndes Academy vs. Southern Academy  -20 88.4%
AISA-8 Man
Evangel Christian vs. Southern Prep  -17 84.4%
Springwood vs. Cornerstone Christian  -28 95.5%

Great Moments in Alabama High School Football History

In 1925 Langdale tied a record by defeating Milltown 125-0. Hamilton had set the record by thrashing Fayette 125-0 in 1915.