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2018 Playoff Predictions
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Something I have done for well over twenty years is use computer generated power ratings to predict the outcomes of high school and college games. Over those years I have tweaked the formulas to arrive at something I think is reasonably accurate in determining which teams are the strongest in the state.
I have been hesitant to use these ratings publicly but thought this might be a good time to see what others think of them. Below are the first round playoff games for each AHSAA classification with the computer points spread. Please these for what their intended purpose. It is simply what the computer thinks the chances are of one team to defeat another.
The projected winner is on the left. The projected margin of victory is on the right. The AHSFHS computer ratings take into account historical scores, weighing the more recent games and seasons the most heavily. The ratings are changed as the season progresses to arrive at this week's games.
I always welcome your input, thoughts and whether you would like to see these each week next season. Join me in the forums or my email address is at the bottom. Later I will explain in more detail how the ratings work.
This Week's AHSFHS Power Ratings for every team
| Playoff Predictions |
| (Team listed first is favorite) | ||||
| 7A | ||||
| Austin at Athens -8 | ||||
| Davidson at Foley -18 | ||||
| Clay-Chalkville vs. Gadsden City -21 | ||||
| Buckhorn vs. Grissom -3 | ||||
| James Clemens at Hillcrest Tuscaloosa -20 | ||||
| Baker vs. Mary Montgomery -14 | ||||
| McGill-Toolen at Fairhope -8 | ||||
| Mountain Brook vs. Gardendale -22 | ||||
| Murphy at Alma Bryant -1 | ||||
| Center Point at Oak Mountain -9 | ||||
| Eufaula vs. Smiths Station -5 | ||||
| Spain Park at Shades Valley -16 | ||||
| Decatur vs. Sparkman -12 | ||||
| Theodore at Enterprise -30 | ||||
| Tuscaloosa County vs. Northridge -7 | ||||
| Vestavia Hills vs. Huffman -23 | ||||
| 6A | ||||
| Blount vs. Daphne -8 | ||||
| Dothan at Carroll -0 | ||||
| Fort Payne at Carver Birmingham -17 | ||||
| Gulf Shores vs. B.C. Rain -13 | ||||
| Helena vs. Calera -11 | ||||
| Hueytown at Briarwood -5 | ||||
| Bessemer City vs. Minor -8 | ||||
| Northview vs. Jeff Davis -9 | ||||
| Auburn vs. Park Crossing -16 | ||||
| Homewood vs. Paul Bryant -15 | ||||
| Chelsea vs. Pell City -6 | ||||
| Pinson Valley vs. Lee Huntsville -50 | ||||
| Russell County at B.T. Washington -14 | ||||
| Selma at LeFlore -7 | ||||
| Prattville at Sidney Lanier -9 | ||||
| Saraland vs. Spanish Fort -4 | ||||
| St. Pauls vs. Robertsdale -24 | ||||
| Greenville vs. Stanhope Elmore -8 | ||||
| 5A | ||||
| American Christian vs. Bibb County -6 | ||||
| Baldwin County at Charles Henderson -12 | ||||
| Alexandria vs. Chilton County -7 | ||||
| Fairfield vs. Central Tuscaloosa -14 | ||||
| Albertville at Guntersville -4 | ||||
| Hamilton vs. Haleyville -4 | ||||
| Demopolis vs. Jackson -18 | ||||
| Jasper vs. Deshler -10 | ||||
| Madison Academy vs. Brooks -3 | ||||
| Holtville vs. Marbury -26 | ||||
| Jackson-Olin vs. Parker -17 | ||||
| Pleasant Grove vs. Leeds -24 | ||||
| Russellville at Central Florence -7 | ||||
| Hokes Bluff at Sardis -17 | ||||
| Bayside Academy vs. Satsuma -2 | ||||
| Hartselle vs. Scottsboro -33 | ||||
| Southside Gadsden at Cherokee County -12 | ||||
| St. Clair County vs. Shelby County -5 | ||||
| Tallassee at Elmore County -7 | ||||
| Benjamin Russell at Valley -10 | ||||
| West Point vs. Cordova -10 | ||||
| Marengo at Wilcox Central -25 | ||||
| Midfield at Woodlawn -31 | ||||
| 4A | ||||
| Anniston vs. Childersburg -16 | ||||
| Carbon Hill at Curry -4 | ||||
| D.A.R. vs. Brindlee Mountain -72 | ||||
| Fayette County at Dora -1 | ||||
| Central Clay County at Handley -22 | ||||
| Headland at Abbeville -8 | ||||
| Excel at Monroe County -13 | ||||
| Lincoln at Montevallo -8 | ||||
| North Jackson at Arab -42 | ||||
| Oneonta at J.B. Pennington -1 | ||||
| Brewer vs. Priceville -38 | ||||
| Randolph vs. Columbia -26 | ||||
| Rogers at Lawrence County -12 | ||||
| Northside vs. Sipsey Valley -21 | ||||
| St. John Paul II at Douglas -32 | ||||
| Oxford vs. Sumter Central -61 | ||||
| Talladega at Moody -9 | ||||
| St. James at Trinity -15 | ||||
| T.R. Miller vs. W.S. Neal -16 | ||||
| West Blocton at Jemison -5 | ||||
| Ardmore at West Limestone -4 | ||||
| Ranburne vs. White Plains -7 | ||||
| Vigor at Williamson -29 | ||||
| Red Bay vs. Wilson -13 | ||||
| 3A | ||||
| Bullock County at Barbour County -38 | ||||
| Geneva vs. Calhoun -48 | ||||
| Aliceville vs. Greene County -21 | ||||
| Greensboro vs. Hale County -14 | ||||
| Good Hope vs. Hanceville -42 | ||||
| Holly Pond at Fairview -2 | ||||
| Brookwood at Holt -15 | ||||
| Houston Academy at G.W. Long -11 | ||||
| Colbert County vs. Lauderdale County -12 | ||||
| Mobile Christian vs. Citronelle -0 | ||||
| Coosa Christian at New Hope -5 | ||||
| Corner at Oakman -8 | ||||
| Luverne at Opp -43 | ||||
| Phil Campbell at Hackleburg -10 | ||||
| Piedmont at Geraldine -5 | ||||
| North Sand Mountain vs. Pisgah -27 | ||||
| Plainview vs. Crossville -4 | ||||
| Ohatchee vs. Pleasant Valley -14 | ||||
| Prattville Christian vs. Horseshoe Bend -6 | ||||
| Slocomb vs. Geneva County -11 | ||||
| St. Michael at Elberta -5 | ||||
| Susan Moore vs. Cleveland -2 | ||||
| Fyffe at Sylvania -26 | ||||
| Thomasville at Clarke County -9 | ||||
| Vinemont vs. Cold Springs -17 | ||||
| Weaver at Alabama Christian -7 | ||||
| Wicksburg vs. Ashford -19 | ||||
| 2A | ||||
| Autaugaville vs. Central Hayneville -6 | ||||
| B.B. Comer at Fayetteville -9 | ||||
| Cedar Bluff at Gaston -27 | ||||
| Brantley vs. Goshen -11 | ||||
| Hatton at Clements -2 | ||||
| Highland Home at Houston County -26 | ||||
| Keith at R.C. Hatch -6 | ||||
| New Brockton at Samson -3 | ||||
| Sheffield at Cherokee -9 | ||||
| Southeastern vs. Asbury -18 | ||||
| Flomaton vs. Southern Choctaw -9 | ||||
| South Lamar at Sulligent -27 | ||||
| East Limestone at Tanner -50 | ||||
| Fultondale vs. Tarrant -25 | ||||
| Thorsby vs. Billingsley -23 | ||||
| Ashville vs. Vincent -6 | ||||
| Glencoe vs. West End Walnut Grove -9 | ||||
| Westbrook Christian vs. Sand Rock -29 | ||||
| Winston County at Lynn -2 | ||||
| Donoho vs. Woodland -29 | ||||
| Zion Chapel vs. Pleasant Home -8 | ||||
| 1A | ||||
| Dallas County vs. Ellwood Christian -43 | ||||
| Falkville at Elkmont -32 | ||||
| Escambia County vs. Francis Marion -18 | ||||
| Alabama School Deaf at Gaylesville -39 | ||||
| J.F. Shields vs. A.L. Johnson -4 | ||||
| Cottonwood vs. Kinston -17 | ||||
| Maplesville at Lamar County -15 | ||||
| Mars Hill at Lexington -39 | ||||
| McIntosh vs. Choctaw County -12 | ||||
| Beulah at McKenzie -36 | ||||
| Leroy vs. Millry -7 | ||||
| Hubbertville vs. Phillips Bear Creek -4 | ||||
| Gordo at Pickens County -8 | ||||
| R.A. Hubbard at East Lawrence -15 | ||||
| Red Level at Fruitdale -11 | ||||
| Spring Garden at Ider -18 | ||||
| Cottage Hill Christian vs. St. Lukes -5 | ||||
| Pike County at Sweet Water -10 | ||||
| Talladega County Central vs. Central Coosa -14 | ||||
| Collinsville vs. Valley Head -64 | ||||
| Isabella at Verbena -44 | ||||
| Victory Christian at Sumiton Christian -5 | ||||
| Tharptown at Vina -8 | ||||
| Randolph County vs. Wadley -17 | ||||
| Waterloo vs. Brilliant -30 | ||||
| Section at Woodville -9 | ||||
David Parker
AHSFHS.org
dparker@ahsfhs.org
Great Moments in Alabama High School Football History
The Hazlewood Golden Bears have won 11 state titles. The most of any team in any classification since the playoffs began in 1966.
The Hazlewood Golden Bears have won 11 state titles. The most of any team in any classification since the playoffs began in 1966.
