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bs091880
AHSFHS Forum Superstar
275 Posts |
 Posted - 11/24/2025 : 13:18:06
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This game is the game that scares me the most and has been all year.
This team and Saraland to a lesser degree are the only two teams I see capable of beating.
That is why I picked them both in my semifinals.
Muscle Shoals put them out of the playoffs last year and are just as good as they were last year.
I will predict my Cougars to win but this will be a very tough game. This game could be tougher than the title game if we make it. |
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rivalsjp
Forum Member<
24 Posts |
Posted - 11/24/2025 : 13:54:21
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Muscle Shoals is a very good team, especially on defense. But offensively Clay beat a much better Homewood team last week. The thing that has given Clay the few problems this year theyve had is a running QB and the one they played last week is probably the best one they will see.
I think MS can slow down Clay more than any other team, but no one is going to consistently stop them. I think it takes at least 31+ for anyone to beat Clay. I think the two teams with the best chance of doing that was Homewood and Saraland. I think Clays got past one of their two biggest hurdles last week. Clay made a couple of early stops in that game to limit Homewood to 3 when it couldve been 14. That was the difference, from there they were able to just grind out a win.
I also think a big bugaboo for Clay this year has been penalties but they've really cleaned that up in rounds 2 and 3. Homewood actually had more penalties than Clay last week. Clay has been very good on turnover margin all year. If they keep playing clean with penalties and winning the turnover battle like they have all year they will be fine. Clay just has to avoid beating themselves.
I think Shoals is really good, but I just dont see them being able to score enough to get it done. That said Clay may have to throw the ball more to beat Shoals than theyve needed to in most games.
For anyone to beat Clay they are going to have to paint a masterpiece in all three phases. You let down for even one play and Clay is going to make you play. Everyone is beatable and starting from the 3rd round on, every team you play is going to be capable of beating you. But if Clay plays their A game, no one in the state regardless of classification is beating them. |
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bs091880
AHSFHS Forum Superstar
275 Posts |
Posted - 11/24/2025 : 15:23:15
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quote:
Originally posted by rivalsjp
Muscle Shoals is a very good team, especially on defense. But offensively Clay beat a much better Homewood team last week. The thing that has given Clay the few problems this year theyve had is a running QB and the one they played last week is probably the best one they will see.
I think MS can slow down Clay more than any other team, but no one is going to consistently stop them. I think it takes at least 31+ for anyone to beat Clay. I think the two teams with the best chance of doing that was Homewood and Saraland. I think Clays got past one of their two biggest hurdles last week. Clay made a couple of early stops in that game to limit Homewood to 3 when it couldve been 14. That was the difference, from there they were able to just grind out a win.
I also think a big bugaboo for Clay this year has been penalties but they've really cleaned that up in rounds 2 and 3. Homewood actually had more penalties than Clay last week. Clay has been very good on turnover margin all year. If they keep playing clean with penalties and winning the turnover battle like they have all year they will be fine. Clay just has to avoid beating themselves.
I think Shoals is really good, but I just dont see them being able to score enough to get it done. That said Clay may have to throw the ball more to beat Shoals than theyve needed to in most games.
For anyone to beat Clay they are going to have to paint a masterpiece in all three phases. You let down for even one play and Clay is going to make you play. Everyone is beatable and starting from the 3rd round on, every team you play is going to be capable of beating you. But if Clay plays their A game, no one in the state regardless of classification is beating them.
Being 70-7 since 2020 I feel very blessed to be living during this era of Cougar football. I know this wont last forever but just enjoy it while it is here |
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rivalsjp
Forum Member<
24 Posts |
Posted - 12/01/2025 : 12:14:48
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Kudos on the win. I was way off on the Addison/Wadley game when I said Addison had almost no chance. I felt really good about Clay beating Shoals and pretty much nailed this one. In my defense I watch way more 6A than 1A haha and one great player in 1A just skews the field so much.
Reasons I felt good is that as good as Shoals defense was, they had not seen an offense in this stratosphere all season. This was also probably the best defense theyd seen. Hartselle or Mtn Brook was probably the closest.
I said it would take at minimum 31 points to beat Clay, which is exactly what it would have taken. I just didn't see anyway they would be able to both hold Clay under 30 and/or score 31.
My feeling all along is that there were only two teams that had a real shot at beating Clay. Homewood and Saraland. Both have high powered offenses combined with the level of defense needed. Neither of those teams are as good as Clay and would need an A+ game to pull it off.
Clay got past Homewood, now its down to Clay and Saraland.
Homewood did as good of a job defensively as anyone this year including Shoals against them, but they could not get enough production on offense or convert in the red zone.
I think Clay wins this game by a similar margin as they did Homewood and Shoals if they play like they have been.
There a couple of things to watch if we are to get a Saraland upset. One is that Clay has been penalty prone all year. They did a really good job against Gadsden and Homewood in the second round limiting penalties, but did not play quite as clean against Shoals and need to clean that up.
The other thing is that in the game with Homewood it was raining pretty hard the entire first half which limited their potency a bit. Homewood was a pass heavy team that built the run off of success in the passing game. In the second half when the rain stopped, Homewood actually started moving the ball pretty well on Clay. Saraland will also have the ability to spread Clay out and move the ball in the air and use a mobile quarterback.
Like I said, I think Clay is the better team and wins the game. Saraland is capable of hitting 31+ on Clay which is where the danger zone is for Clay in my opinion. Clay can still beat a team that scores 31 on them, but it minimizes room for error and is the minimum a team could score and realistically hope to beat Clay. |
Edited by - rivalsjp on 12/01/2025 12:19:35 |
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Tom Servo
Forum Member<
49 Posts |
Posted - 12/02/2025 : 09:26:07
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Nice analysis rivalsjp.
I've watched Clay on NFHS 3 times this year and they are like a ticking time bomb. You expect them to go off any second. So many playmakers, almost every position is strong. The Thompson game was epic and probably the only team in the State that can truly challenge them. Homewood played them better than MS but it was never in doubt. Saraland had early trouble with 4A Jackson and Spain Park was capable of beating them. Thompson was the only team capable of beating Clay this year and I dont think Saraland rises to that level even though they will likely score more than Homewood or MS did. As much as the Power Ratings have been pretty accurate I dont think they're right in this game. My prediction is 35-24 - 41-30'ish type game. Approx 10 point win by CCHS. |
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bs091880
AHSFHS Forum Superstar
275 Posts |
Posted - 12/02/2025 : 13:55:22
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quote:
Originally posted by Tom Servo
Nice analysis rivalsjp.
I've watched Clay on NFHS 3 times this year and they are like a ticking time bomb. You expect them to go off any second. So many playmakers, almost every position is strong. The Thompson game was epic and probably the only team in the State that can truly challenge them. Homewood played them better than MS but it was never in doubt. Saraland had early trouble with 4A Jackson and Spain Park was capable of beating them. Thompson was the only team capable of beating Clay this year and I dont think Saraland rises to that level even though they will likely score more than Homewood or MS did. As much as the Power Ratings have been pretty accurate I dont think they're right in this game. My prediction is 35-24 - 41-30'ish type game. Approx 10 point win by CCHS.
Thanks for the kind post and the information. If win by 50 that's good. If we win by 1 point that's good.
That Blue Map trophy is why you play high school football. |
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rivalsjp
Forum Member<
24 Posts |
Posted - 12/08/2025 : 16:53:42
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Congrats to Clay, what a team. I think this Clay team is one of the better 6A teams of all time and certainly in the modern era. 6A is so deep and competitive, we almost never see a team run through it like Clay did this year.
What is most impressive about the run was the final 3 games. It could be argued and in fact, I'd say very likely, that in some order Muscle Shoals, Homewood and Saraland were the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best teams in 6A this year. Those were the final three opponents Clay played and they beat them all by almost exactly the same number of points. Saraland score would've been even worse if not for the final meaningless TD with less than a minute.
I think there have been many years where any of those teams would've won the state title. These were the closest "challenges" for Clay and the game was never really in doubt with any of them.
Just an amazing season for Clay. They never lost focus, never had a bad enough day to even come really close to losing to 6A team. In such a competitive and balanced class that is incredibly difficult.
Clay was the best team in the state regardless of class and one of the best teams in the country. Congrats to the Cougars. |
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As a fan of Clay Chalkville
